Thursday, November 19, 2015

Trump vs Rubio

Remember on Monday when we speculated that Trump's comments on shutting down mosques might actually gain him a point or two in the polls?

Well, the latest FOX "News" New Hampshire poll just came out, and lo and behold, Trum is up a couple points!

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 12.33.44 PM

No one is even close to him! Ben Carson has cratered, I guess because Republicans have realized that they can have the same level of offensiveness and nuttery from a white man so who needs Carson?

Rubio is the closest competitor and he is FOURTEEN points behind Trump! And how is he going to make up this gap? How many other candidates would have to drop out and throw 100% of their supporters to Rubio to make this happen?

Well, next closest is Cruz. He can't drop out because God wants him to be President and you don't say no to the guy with the lightning bolts! So, Rubio could maybe pick up JEB!'s 9% if he were to drop out.
If Carson goes, you gotta figure his 9% goes to Trump, so best-case scenario fro Rubio is that Carson doesn't stomp his feet, stick out his lower lip and take his bat and ball and go home before New Hampshire at least.
He could pick up 7% when if Kasich throws up his hands, wails "what the fuck happened? I used to be the extreme right-wing of the stupid party!" and quits.
When Christie drops out, Rubio might get some of his voters, those who were voting for the "corrupt, but at least he's not insane" candidate. But the East-Coast-loudmouth-jerk constituency would flock to Trump, so let's say maybe 3% apiece. That's a wash.

So, that's Trump 30%, Rubio 32? Is that right? Of course, once Fiorina decides to go back to being a spectacular private-sector failure, her 3%  comes from the CEO-worshipping wing of the party, so that goes to Trump.

Rand Paul's 3% doesn't go to either candidate. His supporters will probably write in Lyndon LaRouche or Alex Jones or someone.

And there's no one else over 1% other than Don't Know. And Don't Know's 7% could go anywhere.

Anyway you spin it, this is bad news for the GOP. Which means it is good news for America. When your party's best hope is that the electorate will coalesce around Marco Rubio.


The guy who says things like women are looking forward to having more abortions so they can sell the extra baby parts. (source)

The guy whose suggestion that we arm and support the Syrian rebels soon to be known as ISIS got him dragged by the American Conservative!

The guy who was willing to support immigration as long as it wouldn't give any gay people the right to come to America.

This guy is your most electable candidate. He's the guy who seems Presdiential when you compare him to Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and the rest of the insans clown posse crowding on to the GOP debate stage. But when he has to stand on stage with Bernie Sanders or Hilary Clinton, he's back to looking like this guy: